Learn what goals are, how to use them, and the current forecasting model utilized.
Goals in Elevar are not the goals that come to mind in Google Analytics.
Goals in Elevar function the way you might track and report on your internal marketing and sales goals. This is all done by using your Google Analytics data, and you can create as many goals as you'd like.
How to create a Goal
- From the main navigation menu in your Elevar dashboard, select Goals
- Select Create New Goal and you will then enter into the Goal Builder. This screen can input the basic information needed for your goal. Don't worry, you're able to go back and adjust these if needed later!
Basic Information Fields
- Goal Name: Typically people start with revenue or conversion goals, such as 2019 Revenue or Increase Mobile Conversions
- Select a performance indicator: This is your primary metric for your goal
- Select a dimension: Choose a predefined dimension or create your own custom dimension
- Select a segment: Get a quick definition of how each is defined here
- Select your goal milestone period by week or month. Your selection will be the start and end date period for your goal forecast generated.
3. Once you're done filling in the Basic Information and Date sections, select Next
4. Now it's time to set your total goal value target (e.g. $1,000,000 or 5% improvement over last year)
Based on your combination of metrics and dimensions along with the timeframe selected, we pull the previous year's data during the same time frame for quick reference.
So instead of having to calculate your goal on your own, you can do so quickly by using the % input!
6. Set your custom milestone breakdown.
Milestones allow you to override specific weeks or months to account for seasonal fluctuations in your data. By default, we will split out your custom distribution into equal parts.
Example: If your goal value is $12,000,000 and your timeframe is 2019 (12 months) then your preset distributions per month will be $1,000,000.
The image above shows the graph of the goal and you can also track your milestone performance within the monthly report below the graph.
12. Once you're done adjusting your milestones, select 'Save Goal' and you're all set!
Elevar will now track your current milestone and overall goal progress but more importantly will start forecasting your goal at the end of the time period.
We are currently using Prophet by Facebook which is an open-source forecasting model they released in 2017. After testing our own ARIMA and other statistical models we found Prophet to be the most accurate.
Here's a quote about the characteristics which are very similar to eCommerce:
"Prophet is optimized for the business forecast tasks we have encountered at Facebook, which typically have any of the following characteristics:
- hourly, daily, or weekly observations with at least a few months (preferably a year) of history
- strong multiple “human-scale” seasonalities: day of week and time of year
- important holidays that occur at irregular intervals that are known in advance (e.g. the Super Bowl)
- a reasonable number of missing observations or large outliers
- historical trend changes, for instance, due to product launches or logging changes
- trends that are non-linear growth curves, where a trend hits a natural limit or saturates"
The forecasting model is under constant iteration and improvement and we strongly encourage feedback from you on the accuracy and/or tweaking that you would like to see!
Future Goal Metrics
We will be adding in the ability to set goals on % and $ avg based metrics soon (i.e. conversion rate and AOV) as well as offering custom dimension filters (i.e. goals by product SKU). Prophet is new for us so we are still in full evaluation mode.