Learn about our forecasting model used for projected values within goals.
We are currently using Prophet by Facebook which is an open-source forecasting model they released in 2017. After testing our own ARIMA and other statistical models we found Prophet to be the most accurate.
Here's a quote about the characteristics which are very similar to the eCommerce industry:
"Prophet is optimized for the business forecast tasks we have encountered at Facebook, which typically have any of the following characteristics:
- hourly, daily, or weekly observations with at least a few months (preferably a year) of history
- strong multiple “human-scale” seasonalities: day of week and time of year
- important holidays that occur at irregular intervals that are known in advance (e.g. the Super Bowl)
- a reasonable number of missing observations or large outliers
- historical trend changes, for instance, due to product launches or logging changes
- trends that are non-linear growth curves, where a trend hits a natural limit or saturates"